Ci gaban tattalin arzikin duniya yana raguwa kuma zai iya haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki tare.

A watan Oktoban da ya gabata, Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya (IMF) ya yi hasashen cewa tattalin arzikin duniya zai bunkasa da kashi 4.9 cikin 100 a shekarar 2022. Bayan kusan shekaru biyu da annobar ta yi fama da ita, wata alama ce ta maraba da komawa ga zaman lafiya a hankali.A cikin rahotonta na shekara-shekara, IMF ta buga wasu kyawawan bayanai, tana mai nuni da cewa yayin da cutar ke ci gaba, hakanan ya kasance - ko da yake ba daidai ba a duk yankuna - farfadowar tattalin arzikin.

Bayan watanni shida kawai, IMF ta sake duba hasashenta: a'a, in ji ta, a wannan shekara tattalin arzikin zai bunkasa zuwa 3.6%.Yanke-maki 1.3 kasa da hasashen da aka yi a baya kuma daya daga cikin mafi girma na Asusun tun farkon karni-ya kasance saboda babban bangare (ba abin mamaki ba) ga yakin Ukraine.

"Sakamakon tattalin arziki na yakin yana yaduwa sosai - kamar raƙuman ruwa da ke fitowa daga tsakiyar girgizar kasa - musamman ta hanyar kasuwannin kayayyaki, kasuwanci, da haɗin gwiwar kudi," in ji Daraktan Bincike, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, a cikin gabanin bugu na Afrilu na hasashen tattalin arzikin duniya.“Saboda Rasha ita ce babbar mai samar da man fetur, iskar gas, da karafa, kuma tare da kasar Ukraine, na alkama da masara, raguwar samar da wadannan kayayyaki a halin yanzu da kuma hasashen da ake tsammani ya sa farashinsu ya tashi sosai.Turai, Caucasus da Asiya ta Tsakiya, Gabas ta Tsakiya da Arewacin Afirka, da yankin kudu da hamadar Sahara sun fi shafa.Karin farashin abinci da man fetur zai cutar da gidaje masu karamin karfi a duniya - ciki har da Amurka da Asiya."

Gaskiya - bisa la'akari da rikice-rikice na siyasa da kasuwanci - tattalin arzikin duniya ya riga ya bi yanayin koma-baya kafin yakin da barkewar cutar.A cikin 2019, 'yan watanni kafin Covid-19 ya haɓaka rayuwa kamar yadda muka sani, manajan darakta na IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, ta yi gargaɗi: “Shekaru biyu da suka gabata, tattalin arzikin duniya yana cikin haɓaka haɓakawa.An auna ta hanyar GDP, kusan kashi 75% na duniya yana haɓaka.A yau, har ma da ƙarin tattalin arzikin duniya yana tafiya daidai.Amma abin takaici, wannan lokacin girma yana raguwa.A zahiri, a cikin 2019 muna tsammanin haɓaka sannu a hankali a kusan kashi 90% na duniya."

Tabarbarewar tattalin arziki koyaushe yana yiwa wasu mutane wahala fiye da sauran amma cutar ta kara tsananta rashin daidaito.Rashin daidaito yana karuwa a tsakanin kasashe da yankuna masu tasowa da masu tasowa.

IMF ta yi nazari kan yadda tattalin arzikin kasashen da suka ci gaba suke yi a cikin ’yan shekarun da suka gabata, kuma ta gano cewa rarrabuwar kawuna ta karu tun daga karshen shekarun 1980.Wadannan gibin GDP na kowa da kowa suna dawwama, suna karuwa a kan lokaci kuma suna iya zama ma fi bambance-bambance tsakanin kasashe.

Idan ana maganar tattalin arziki a yankuna masu fama da talauci, dukkansu suna nuna halaye iri ɗaya waɗanda ke jefa su cikin babban lahani lokacin da rikici ya afku.Sun kasance sun kasance yankunan karkara, marasa ilimi da ƙwararru a sassa na gargajiya kamar aikin gona, masana'antu da ma'adinai, yayin da ƙasashe masu ci gaba galibi sun fi birane, ilimi da ƙwararrun sassan sabis na haɓaka haɓaka aiki kamar fasahar sadarwa, kuɗi da sadarwa.Daidaita ga mummunan tashin hankali yana da sauƙi kuma yana da sakamako mara kyau na tsawon lokaci akan aikin tattalin arziki, yana ba da ƙarin cajin sauran abubuwan da ba'a so ba kama daga rashin aikin yi da rage jin daɗin rayuwa.Cutar amai da gudawa da matsalar abinci ta duniya da yakin Ukraine ya haifar ya zama tabbataccen tabbacin hakan.